The Singularity

               Singularity is a future period during which the pace of technological change 

               will be so rapid, its impact so deep, that human life will be irreversibly transformed.
                                                                                   ― Ray Kurzweil, The Singularity is Near

Originator

Vernor Vinge is a retired San Diego State University mathematics professor, computer scientist and science fiction author who I met locally. In his 1993 essay The Coming Technological Singularity he predicted that the creation of superhuman artificial intelligence would mark the point beyond which no current models of reality are sufficient to predict what will happen. ⁽¹⁾ He believes that shortly after the Singularity arrives the human era will be ended.

Vernor Vinge was the first to coin the phrase, “Technological Singularity” to describe a future point at which technology creates intelligences beyond human comprehension. The term is now in wide use among futurists. Some 20 years later, he remains firm on his views about the collapse of civilization after the Singularity.  In my opinion, this is more than a little tinged with his futuristic science fiction imagination. ⁽²⁾

Principal Supporter

Ray Kurzweil’s is a distinguished MIT graduate, a prizewinning author and scientist who received the National Medal of Technology& Innovation in 1999. He has been inducted into the Inventors Hall of Fame, has received 20 honorary doctorates, has been awarded honors from three U.S. presidents, and has authored 7 books (5 of them national bestsellers).

About 25 years ago, Ray Kurzweil changed his job description to "societal visionary". He became Director of Engineering of Google in 2012, saying that his sole job is to make computers as smart as humans, with natural language understanding.

Ray Kurzweil published two books that got me hooked on his futuristic thinking: The Age of Intelligent Machines (Oct. 1990); and The Age of Spiritual Machines: When Computers Exceed Human Intelligence. (Jan. 2000)

Ray Kurzweil’s 670-page tome, The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology was published in 2011. ⁽³⁾ The book was a New York Times bestseller and has been #1 on Amazon in both science and philosophy. It portrays what life will be like after the Singularity – a human-machine civilization when human experiences shift from real to virtual reality. I got an advance copy at a conference where Ray Kurzweil was the keynote speaker, and have been carrying an e-copy around on my Kindle since.

Approaching Singularity

Ray Kurzweil offers a framework for envisioning the twenty-first century – an age in which the marriage of human sensitivity and artificial intelligence fundamentally alters and improves the way we live. Kurzweil's prophetic blueprint for the future takes us through the advances that inexorably result in computers exceeding the memory capacity and computational ability of the human brain by the year 2020 (with human-level capabilities not far behind); in relationships with automated personalities who will be our teachers, companions, and lovers; and in information fed straight into our brains along direct neural pathways. ⁽⁴⁾

Here's what Ray Kurzweil expects:

"Within just a few decades, life as we know it will be completely different. Non-biological intelligence will match the range and subtlety of human intelligence. It will then speed past it because of the continuing acceleration of information-based technologies, with the ability of machines to share their knowledge instantly. By 2045, we'll get to a point where technical progress will be so fast that un-enhanced human intelligence won't keep pace."

Ray Kurzweil’s movies, Singularity and Transcendent Man are different versions of the same idea. Ray discusses a hypothetical future paradise in which humans will become "more creative and more loving" by adding artificial intelligence to their brains.

Ray Kurzweil turned 68 this year (February 2016) and expects to live forever, with his intelligence downloaded to a machine. In the meantime, he is reprogramming his metabolism for extreme longevity by taking about 200 pills a day. He says, "I think I'll make it through to when I can at least back myself up."

 Time Cover Story

In Feb 2011 the cover of TIME magazine featured the headline: "2045 - The Year Man Becomes Immortal". The cover-story shows Ray Kurzweil in front of a theater showing his movie, and the article headlines the definition of Singularity: "The moment when technological change becomes so rapid and profound, it represents a rupture in the fabric of human history". ⁽⁵⁾⁽⁶⁾

TIME's coverage of Ray Kurzweil came just a few days after USA Today interviewed him about the Jeopardy match between IBM's supercomputer Watson, which won against two of the game's human champions. The match was reminiscent of the historic chess win by IBM's Deep Blue against world chess-champion Garry Kasporov in 1997. Years before it happened, Kurzweil foretold that computers would defeat humans in chess

Possibilities

Will there be a Singularity? On one hand, it could potentially solve most human problems, even mortality. Unshackled by human limitations, advanced life could eventually do amazing things beyond our abilities. On the other hand, it could destroy life, as we know it. 

The Singularity could be the best or worst thing ever to happen to humanity. Yet, largely, it is shrugged off. A common argument is that there is no scientific proof that any disaster scenarios will occur.  On the optimistic side, digital technologies will diagnose diseases more accurately than doctors can, apply enormous data sets to transform retailing, and accomplish many tasks once considered uniquely human. 

Some people think that the Singularity seems far-fetched. But, when I travel halfway across the globe with ivory-tower objectivity at 40,000 feet, I keep imagining how the world continues to accelerate through technology. I get a strange feeling that indeed some significant transition is inevitable. It won't be a smooth shift – more like an inflection point, a fairly rapid switch.

Transhuman

The interconnected, planet-wide web is already more complex than a human brain and has surpassed the 20-petahertz threshold for potential intelligence. In 10 years, it will be a thousand times more powerful. ⁽⁷⁾ So, will super intelligence emerge on the Web? And, if it does, will it be manageable? Or, will it take charge and manage? Already, some are predicting transhuman and posthuman intelligence. Can anyone say with certainty that this cannot or will not happen?

At this stage, perhaps we can only just muse about these ideas. Before you shrug them off or completely dismiss them, please read Ray Kurweil's book – or maybe read the first couple of chapters on Amazon.com.

Whimsical

In any case, you might enjoy this song, a humorous Singularitarian version of Gilbert & Sullivan's I Am The Very Model of a Modern Major General from the opera, The Pirates of Penzance.

Here's a sample of the lyrics. Below, you’ll find a link to a YouTube video version:  ⁽⁸⁾

I am the very model of a Singularitarian
I'm combination Transhuman, Immortalist, Extropian,
Aggressively I'm changing all my body's biochemistry
Because my body's heritage is obsolete genetically,
I'll try to improve these patterns with optimal biology,
Expand my mental faculties by merging with technology

Economic Singularity

I was reminded of my attraction to and fascination with the concept of the Singularity when the financial guru John Mauldin, who writes remarkably well, brought it up recently in his Thoughts from the Frontline newsletter. ⁽⁹⁾

John writes: The black hole is the point of no return – the point at which the gravitational pull becomes so great that nothing can escape; conventional models no longer work.

John Mauldin is correct to draw a parallel between the technological singularity and the black hole that is being approached with the current global economic situation. An economic bubble of any type, but especially a debt bubble, can be thought of as an emergent black hole. When the bubble gets too big and then collapses in upon itself, it creates its own black hole with all traditional economic modeling breaks down.

Any economic theory that does not attempt to transcend the event horizon associated with excessive debt will be incapable of offering a viable solution to an economic crisis. Even worse, it is likely that any proposed solution will make the crisis more severe.

Clearly, there’s a significant parallel between the technological singularity, and the economic and financial black hole that has been developing in the world. Will the two singularities occur simultaneously? Or will one of them cause the other?

Takeover

Google’s autonomous cars have now logged thousands of miles on American highways.  In 2014, a vice-chairman of General Motors stated that self-driving cars should “hit the road soon” because they will be safer than vehicles driven by people. ⁽¹⁰⁾ So, humans won’t drive anymore – they’ll be driven by artificial intelligence (AI).

Clearly Governments and business could follow much the same pattern – using machine intelligence to go beyond human capabilities and eliminate human fallibility. How far will this develop until AI has the ability to take over?

By 2020 over 6 billion people will own smart-phones, about 70% of the world’s population. In fact, total mobile subscriptions (including Internet services) will actually number 9.2 billion by that time. Taking into account Internet-of-things and M2M services, mobile broadband and even some basic remaining feature phones, there will be 26 billion connected devices in five years’ time. This is an indication of just how dominant these devices are becoming with how people communicate with each other. ⁽¹¹⁾

Beyond just making phone calls, smartphones provide GPS directions (few use map-books anymore), keep track of appointments and contacts, take pictures, play music, mingle via social media, and look up everything on Google. Through the installation of apps, the list of possible smartphone uses multiplies by tens of thousands and keeps growing longer. ⁽¹²⁾

In my view, the takeover process won’t be top-down (some dominant science-fiction-like giant), but steady bottom-up spread into the human psyche. Humans are already slaves.

Let’s Engage

Please answer the following questions. If you wish, you may share your own views via the blog. Or, send your responses to me and I’ll publish.

1. Do you recognize technology acceleration in your own life? Does it excite you? Or does it make you uncomfortable?
2. Where do you think technology is leading? Has it changed your own life?
3. Do you use a desktop? Tablet? Smartphone? What are your major uses?
4. What do YOU think smartphones will do in 5, 10 or 20 years?
5. Will computers be smarter than humans? When?
6. Is your grandchild using smart gadgets today? How will he/she be using in 20 years?
7. Do you see a sudden Singularity arriving? Or will it come creeping?
8. Could the Singularity be triggered via the expected world financial collapse?
9. Please share your own comments. Write a sentence or two. Or, a whole essay.

References

1. Vernor Vinge on the Technological Singularity: https://goo.gl/45ARqf
2. Vernor Vinge Optimistic About the Collapse of Civilization: http://goo.gl/a3FfJE
3. The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology: http://goo.gl/omg8bd
4. IEEE Special Report- The Singularity: http://goo.gl/zhkVrk
5. TIME 2045: The Year Man Becomes Immortal: http://goo.gl/fLJzXu
6. Robots about to rise - Google's new director of engineering: https://goo.gl/UDbRdK
7. WIRED - We Are the Web: http://goo.gl/2zKhRo
8. Youtube video – I am the very model of a Singularitarian: https://goo.gl/5l0ACx
9. John Mauldin - The Economic Singularity: http://goo.gl/i3jY0u
10. Self-driving cars safer than those driven by humans: http://goo.gl/W3ZBVC
11. 6.1 billion Smartphone Users Globally By 2020: http://goo.gl/62Dp1r
12. The Benefits of Smartphone Technology: http://goo.gl/zx8K8H

..ooOOoo..

Jim Pinto

Carlsbad, CA.

USA