Do you recall the world 50 years ago? To jog your memory,
I’ve provided a Wikipedia link for the world in 1965. (1) If you’re
not that old, read anyway – it’s interesting.
Now, jump forward 10 years (2025), 20,30,50 years (2065).
My 3-year old grandson will be a new teenager in 2025 and 53 in 2065; add
another ten years for his older cousin. What kind of world will they
experience?
Technology Effects
Today’s children have one thing in common: their heads are
facing down, as they text each other and play games on smartphones, tablets and
TV screens. My 3-year old grandson already manipulates an iPad in ways that
surprise everyone.
A nationwide Kaiser Family Foundation survey reports that
media use has increased to nearly 7 ½ hours a day in children between the ages
of 8 and 18.(2) And children have become masters at multitasking,
often using two or more devices at the same time. These are the M2 Generation –
highly technological children whose lives seem to revolve around the media. With
the constant exposure that children have to television, computers, music,
mobile devices, and video games, it seems there is no limit to the amount of
time they spend with media devices. (3)
Many believe the surge of Attention Deficit Hyperactivity
Disorder (ADHD) diagnosis coincides with the fast increasing use of mobile
devices and video games.
I have a different theory
– admittedly my own. Technology is extending the capabilities of the human
brain; it is adapting children to the ever-accelerating complexities of life.
It allows them to switch context rapidly, without losing depth and quality of
thought. I’ve played chess with a kid on Venice beach who simultaneously played
5 others. He beat me three times (at $ 5 a game). I’m convinced that my own grandsons
will beat me that way, and not simply because my brain is aging.
Technology can be both beneficial and harmful to the different
ways in which people think. When books became common, many parents worried that
their children were reading too much and missing out on social interactions.
But reading encouraged focus and imagination. For today’s youngsters, because
their brains are still developing and malleable, frequent exposure to the
latest technology is actually wiring their intelligence in ways that are very
different from previous generations. Whether that’s good or bad is indeed debatable.
Medical Technology
Technologies will extend
lifetimes, keep humans younger longer and enhance intelligence. The eventual
merging of synthetic DNA and artificial intelligence will bring new
diagnostics, medical treatment and smart nano-prosthetics to future generations.
(4)The widespread application of cyborg-assisted-life will change our attitudes about what the notion of “human” means. Just as computers, cell phones, the Internet, Google, and Facebook continue to change our social reality and even our brain biology, the proliferation of in-the-body technologies will radically change everything. Our artificially controlled metabolisms will begin to alter our natural biological evolution.
Future Advances
In April 2000, I presented a paper, “Evolution of the Techno-human” at Dick Morley’s Chaos Conference in
Santa Fe, NM. I wrote an article, published by Spark-online in November 2000,
on the same subject.(5) As I read that again, 15 years later, I see
some resonance with what is happening today.
Human progress is not linear – it’s moving exponentially. Accelerating
change is speeding up the rate of technological, social and cultural
progress, generating faster and more profound changes.
Predictions of continuous accelerating change are closely
associated with respected technology futurist Ray Kurzweil, who many consider
to be the modern-day Thomas Edison. Here’s a summary of what Kurzweil thinks
the future will be like(6) :
- By 2029, machines will be
able to match the human intelligence.
- Human brains will extend
to the cloud, allowing continuous learning at any age.
- Memories will be capable
of being selectively erased.
- Many humans will remain in augmented reality at all times.
- In the 2030s, tiny
“nanobots” will repair and preserve vital organs, making humans healthier
and smarter.
- 3D printing will be common,
with public 3D printing stations to print clothes, toys and almost anything.
- Within 25 years, computers
will be the size of a blood cell and will connect to the brain without the
need for surgery.
- The “technological singularity” will occur in 2045, enabling superhuman machine intelligence; humans and machines will become deeply integrated. That’s 30 years from now. Hmmm… my grandsons will be 33 and 43 when that occurs.
Anthropocene Age
Humans are causing significant and irreversible impacts on
Earth’s environment through mass extinctions of plant and animal species,
polluted oceans and altered atmosphere. Is it time to call an end to the
epoch we live in and declare the dawn of a new time period: one defined by
humanity’s imprint on the planet?
The International Union of Geological Sciences (IUGS) has
convened a group of scholars to decide by 2016 whether to officially declare
that the Holocene age, which began 12,000 to 11,500 years ago at the end
of the Ice Age, is over.
Humans are now in the Anthropocene
age – Anthropo, for man, cene, for new. (7) Nobel
laureate Paul Crutzen popularized that term in 2000, and it has been adopted in
many elite science circles.(8)
Writes New York Times reporter Andrew Revkin, “Two billion
years ago, cyanobacteria oxygenated the atmosphere and powerfully disrupted
life on earth. But they didn’t know it. We’re the first species that’s become a
planet-scale influence and is aware of that reality. That’s what distinguishes
us.”
Homni
Gaia Vince quit her science journalist job in London to
travel the world and see the people, plants and animals that make up our unique
living planet. I’m quoting extensively from her writings and a BBC article
about her quest. (9)
Gaia considers that the
Earth has entered a new geological epoch – industrialization, population
expansion, globalization and the revolution in communications technology. She calls
modern-day humans Homni, an immensely
powerful “superspecies” with intelligence, creativity and sociability
comparable to the networked, linked-up, conversational accumulation of all the
human brains. This includes those from the past who have left a cultural and
intellectual legacy. In addition, there are also the artificial “brains” of our
technological inventions. (10)
Homni influences the
biosphere with its needs – currently using 18 trillion watts of energy at any
time, 9,000 billion cubic meters of water per year, 40% of global land area for
farming, and increasing amounts of other natural and mineral resources. Earth's
land surface is being “terraformed” with
multiple megacities of concrete, steel and glass.
Homni now controls
three-quarters of Earth’s freshwater supplies, has modified more than
three-quarters of ice-free land surface, modulates the planet's
air and oceanic chemistry. Increasing
levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is causing climate change. The
planet’s biodiversity is being steadily reduced, causing what scientists fear
may be the sixth mass extinction in its history.
Only time will tell if Homni
will eventually be benign caretakers, or continue to destroy life and with that
destruction, themselves.
Superorganism
The May 2013 cover story of National Geographic showed babies that will live to be 120. In
coming decades, humans will increasingly have a doubled lifespan and basic increased
awareness of scientific, geopolitical, cultural and social factors that allow
the world to function. The human super organism will be relied upon to feed,
clothe, inform and heal, even to help reproduce. The result will be a new way
of living that is akin to being a new subspecies. (11)
The super organism is already developing characteristics that go beyond the simple accumulation and manipulation of fellow humans. Future generations will not simply make the same mistakes. History will not repeat itself.
Global networking will bring good changes. Worldwide
collaboration will increasingly have more definitive control over
indiscriminate actions. Social cooperation will become the norm, with human impulses
to cooperate rather than fight, nurture not neglect, working unselfishly with the
long-term in mind, committed to improving relations with neighbors, building a
better world.
Admittedly, many of these ideas are my own wishful prognostications. But, I agree with Gaia Vince, “The alternatives are too monstrous to contemplate.”
References:
- Wikipedia – 1965: http://goo.gl/NB9YCM
- M2 Generation: Kids too Dependent on Media? http://goo.gl/RT6M2u
- Technology is Changing the Way Children Think & Focus: http://goo.gl/eS1MqE
- Modern Humans Are Still Evolving: http://goo.gl/5Pmwt8
- Evolution of the Techno-human – Jim Pinto Nov. 2000: http://goo.gl/5d5SrP
- Ray Kurzweil Thinks Life Will Be In The Next 20 Years: http://goo.gl/5XjJps
- Guardian – Anthropocene: The new epoch of humans? http://goo.gl/xWbqPm
- Smithsonian – What is the Anthropocene and Are We in It? http://goo.gl/Pw4gFR
- BBC – Homni: The new superorganism taking over Earth: http://goo.gl/g7ubDf
- Gaia Vince – Welcome to the Anthropocene: http://goo.gl/5EIdE2
- Book: Adventures in the Anthropocene: http://goo.gl/AX9BYz
Carlsbad, CA. USA
10 March 2015
One element of history will repeat itself. Greed and lust for power will influence how these new capabilities are used. For every effort to use technology to extend human life, there will another one that will use it to kill more efficiently. For every effort to end poverty and hunger, there will be another effort to use technology to further concentrate wealth and power.
ReplyDeleteHuman nature is not often a force for good.
My own premise (in this blog) is that modern youngsters, growing up "connected" at all times, will be less greedy and more collaborative. So, all the earlier human trains - narrow-minded, selfishness, etc. - will be transformed into a much more global-minded human.
DeleteI know I'm thinking wishfully.
I like the optimistic outlook and I would hope that is what actually happens. I do have to accede to Anonymous above and look at the thousands of years of history and would guess that the amazing technology envisioned will be used to create incredible weapons as well. The wealth migration to the 1% (rapidly moving to 1/2%) will insure that greed will continue to drive actions.
ReplyDeleteYes, that is the current pessimistic view. My own, admittedly optimistic, view is that the new human sub-species that is now developing will think beyond the old selfish, greedy view of life.
DeleteYou're not wishfully thinking as much as you think, Jim. Given how ugly mankind's dark side is, it's easy to focus on everything we've done wrong. That said, in the last 200 years we've had advances we often don't appreciate. I'm not just talking about technology, either.
ReplyDeleteYes, we still live in a world of haves and have nots, but it's less so than any other point in history and still changing in a positive direction. Maybe not fast enough, but look how society was arranged up through the 19th Century. Significant progress has been made and should be acknowledged.
It is now possible to live your whole life without having a war land in your own backyard. There are still too many wars, both big and small, but up until recently, warfare was a constant reality for almost everyone on Earth. There wasn't even a name for genocide, as that's just what people did.
The only way mankind has ever progressed is to be realistically optimistic. There is way too much "We stink!" talk in the world. If we can't look at what's been successful and believe we can build on it, we'll be surrendering ourselves to the worst of mankind.
Thank you, Dan, for your positive comments and ideas!
ReplyDeleteYes, we have less poverty and war than at any other time in history. Because of the constant media emphasis on any type of conflict, we think that it is everywhere, all the time. Actually, it has gotten better, and will improve.
My key point in this blog was to take what some (older) people think is a troubling trend (young people always on mobile links) and convert that to a positive trend. Young people are starting to be more connected to each other and the world. The short attention span is, in my view, an indicator of increased ability to multi-task and think much faster.
The trend towards a new human sub-species - Anthropocene - is recognized as very real by many scientists and geologists. Let's not overlook that.
I sincerely hope that my own pessimistic outlook, based on history, is proven to be wrong. Actually we have no choice as a species: we MUST improve and eradicate the nastiness that still exists in some places and minds. It's not really an option, even for pessimists who have a desire to live forever through their grandchildren.
ReplyDeleteEducation, education and education are the three things that may lift us out of the potential darkness.
A book I read, by CS Lewis, ends with this statement: "We are a young species." Humans are learning, and we are always judging by "old" standards.
ReplyDeleteMy theory (in this blog) is that young people will be learning much faster through constant use of technology, and will advance our species much faster. We, the older generations should not keep wanting them to be like us. We (the current generation) are good, but not good enough. We are still stuck in the past, often with pessimism.
Homni, in the new Anthropocene age, will advance rapidly, beyond our expectations.