Wednesday, September 9, 2015

Population Dynamics

 By improving health and empowering women, population growth comes down.
                                                                                                       Bill Gates

Population Matters

Major crises regularly dominate the news – political instability, food and water shortages, global warming, severe poverty, energy resources, religious differences, wars, and global economic instability. Virtually all these problems relate in some way to population growth.

More than 7 billion people currently inhabit the planet, compared to only 3 billion in 1967. Every year about 135 million people are born and 55 million people die, adding about 80 million to our global population. That's about one USA every 4 years, or 1 billion more every 12 years. Almost half of the global population is under the age of 25 and their decisions during their reproductive years will determine whether we have 6 billion or 14 billion people by 2100. (1)

China currently has the largest population, though growth is slowing. India is second and will overtake China as the world’s most populous country within the next decade. USA is third, followed by Indonesia, Brazil and Pakistan. (2)

Forecasts & Projections

2014 UN forecasts indicate that world population will grow from 7.3 billion to 9.7 billion in 2050, 100m more than the last report just two years ago. More than half the growth comes from Africa, where the population is set to double to 2.5 billion.

Nigeria's population will reach 413m, overtaking America as the world's third most-populous country. India will surpass China as the world's most populous country in 2022, six years earlier than was previously forecast. China's population will peak at 1.4 billion in 2028; India's four decades later at 1.75 billion.

Changes in fertility make long-term projections hard, but by 2100 the planet’s population will be rising past 11.2 billion. (3)(4)

Population Density

What matter is population density. Many small countries have much higher density than large countries. (5) This data can be compared with the US states where smaller states like New Jersey and Rhode Island have higher densities than New York, California and Illinois. (6)

Each person uses far more land than the few feet they actually occupy. We use cropland to grow food, grazing land for meat and dairy, oceans for fishing and oxygen generation, forests for lumber and carbon sequestration, and developed land for habitation, transportation and commerce. This is our Global Footprint. For an average European or American lifestyle, it is 10-20 acres per person.

Environmental & Social Problems

Population growth is a root cause of many environmental and social problems, from life threatening to disruptive: (1)

  • Population growth is tied to poverty and inequality.
  • Over 1 billion people do not have enough food and safe drinking water.
  • Energy sources are becoming scarcer and harder to reach or extract.
  • People now live in areas that are basically unsafe. Hundred of thousands of people died in 2010-2011 because they lived on floodplains in Pakistan or by the tsunami-prone coast of Japan. These regions were sparsely populated just 30 years ago.
  • Global warming is disrupting our ecosystems

Food & Water Shortages

Population growth raises a host of questions about the future of humanity. (7) This year, for the first time in history, over 1 billion people go hungry every day. Every year 100 million more people suffer from chronic hunger and poverty.

Rising energy prices and growing water scarcity will make it harder to feed an expanding population.  In many parts of the world at various times of the year, major rivers no longer reach the ocean.  In some areas, lakes are going dry and underground water aquifers are being rapidly depleted.  And climate change will make the water situation even more critical. Drier areas will be more prone to drought, wetter areas more prone to flooding, and the summer runoff from snowpack and glaciers will diminish.

As food, water, and other resources are strained by the increasing needs of a growing world population, the number of environmental refugees in the world will rise, as will the potential for conflict and war.

Ageing & Decline

The median age of 30 will rise to 36 in 2050 and 42 in 2100 – the median age of Europeans today. A quarter of Europe's people are already aged 60 or more; by 2050 deaths will outnumber births by 32m. The UN warns that only immigration will prevent the region's population from shrinking further.

The big surprise of the past couple of decades is that, in several countries, fertility continued to fall after reaching the replacement rate of 2.1 children per woman. In Italy, the rate has fallen to 1.2. In Western Europe as a whole and in Japan it is down to 1.5.

Population decline is caused by several factors – disease, famine, war, heavy emigration and limited immigration, fertility below replacement rates. (8) (9) This indicates that within about 50 years world population will peak at about eight billion and then start to decline fairly rapidly. In developed countries, continuing advances in technology, such as automation and robotics, will increase productivity to diminish the problem of decreasing population. (10)

Migration & Immigration

Since about 3000 BC, various clearly identifiable groups of people have moved from one area of the world to another. Sometimes large numbers of people arrive suddenly and with hostile intent. At other times identifiable groups are moved in large numbers against their will. The transfer of Africans to America as part of the slave trade is a clear example, with race being the defining factor. Also, large groups of voluntary immigrants – the Irish coming to America, for example – remain identifiable and have a similar influence on history. (11)

The futures should be relatively bright for developed countries that can absorb new immigrants at a modest cost. They will help enable a rebalancing of population that will help the entire planet. In contrast, developed countries with relatively inflexible notions of national identity, and thus with strict immigration policies, may shrink in population and lose influence.

As this blog was being written, the news is filled with immigrants to Europe from war-torn Syria and the Middle East. They are risking themselves as they flee with their families towards a better life. It is likely that most of them will contribute substantially, bringing the best of their own culture and skills to their adopted country.

Ethical Considerations

Population growth raises important ethical issues around the balance between reproductive rights and social and environmental responsibilities. (12)

  1. Population growth rates can be controlled by only 2 ways: family planning, or more deaths (famine, disease, war).
  2. This is not just an issue for poor countries.
  3. Everyone needs to be aware of the ethical implications of having large families.
  4. Family planning should be a very high priority.
  5. Humans must stop occupying, degrading and destroying wildlife habitats.
  6. Governments should have a national goal of environment sustainability. 
Throughout history, most wars have had trade and resources at their core fueled by imperialistic motives. The resulting stress is caused by how people choose to live, produce, consume and waste resources. The poor actually consume far less resources of the planet.  Different, wiser and longer-term choices must be made.

Solutions

There is one simple strategy that will help to address all these problems:  provide universal access to voluntary family planning and reproductive health services. 

There are over 100 million women in the world today who want to space or limit their pregnancies, but who lack knowledge of, or access to, modern methods of contraception.  By educating and empowering women, and giving them access to family planning services, lives can be saved, families strengthened, poverty reduced, environment preserved. This helps to achieve a population that can live in harmony with the planet. (13)

Gaia Solutions

Gaia Vince is a journalist specializing in science, the environment and social issues. She travels the world meeting the people, plants and animals that make up our unique living planet. Her book, Adventures in the Anthropocene is a best seller. I was motivated to write this blog after reading her latest newsletter, Wandering Gaia. (14)

As people get richer, better educated, and urban, and as resources become scarcer, women will continue to have fewer children. Such a shift is already happening in parts of the rich world and the social consequences are enormous. Wealthy societies will increasingly have to rely on immigration to support the generational population disparity.

Rather than focusing on population growth as the primary environmental problem, we need to accept our growing numbers and look to what we can acceptably change. It comes down to our use of resources. For example, if product engineers were made to consider the 10-billion global population during the design phase, they could create products that are more durable, longer lasting, and more easily dismantled for efficient recycling of their materials. Energy could be generated from nonpolluting sources. Instead of wasting 40 percent of our food, as we do now, we could farm, store, transport, and eat it more efficiently.

Until the next population-decimating pandemic sweeps the globe, we need to make our large number part of the environmental solution rather than the problem.

Let’s Engage

Please share our discussion by responding to these questions directly via the blog.

  1. Is population growth a problem or an opportunity?
  2. Are there any countries where population is not growing? Is that good, or bad for those countries?
  3. Do you favor or oppose immigration? Would you favor allowing more immigrants into your country?
  4. If you are an immigrant, do you feel that you have blended into your new country? Do you still speak the language of the country of your origin?
  5. Much of the world is still empty space; have you considered moving? Would you consider emigrating?
  6. As the population ages, would you favor increasing the retirement age?
  7. How should the increasing number of retired and elderly people be cared for?
  8. What solutions would you propose to control population growth? 
  9. How do we meet human needs and still preserve Earth's finite resources, biodiversity, and natural beauty? 
References

  1. Best Population Size? - The Big Picture: http://goo.gl/WU15NN
  2. Countries in the world (ranked by 2014 population): http://goo.gl/dfHCj1
  3. A World With 11 Billion People? http://goo.gl/DbdVsz
  4. Global population forecasts – Chart: http://goo.gl/Cngn2B
  5. Highest population density – Many different indices: http://goo.gl/jtyYqc
  6. List of U.S. states by population density: https://goo.gl/Lxgr5j
  7.  Population based on Resource Sufficiency Evaluation: http://goo.gl/eHVln9
  8. World's Fastest-Shrinking Countrieshttp://goo.gl/SbVS5h
  9. The Population Surprise: http://goo.gl/MnzjLw
  10. Population Decline and the Great Economic Reversal: https://goo.gl/aQwgyh
  11. A Strategy for Rich Countries: Absorb More Immigrants: http://goo.gl/TTD2If
  12. Population & ethics: http://goo.gl/KWVAo2
  13. From Population Crisis to Sustainable Solutions: http://goo.gl/kASPra
  14. Wandering Gaia – Are we too many? http://goo.gl/XVnPiI

Jim Pinto
Carlsbad, CA. USA
9 September 2015


15 comments:


  1. The magic bullets:
    - Education, especially of girls and women.
    - Emancipation of women (no I don't mean bra burning, I mean decision making processes that enable women to direct their lives, instead of being subjected to the whims of deluded power-drunk pathetic patriarchs). (PS I'm a man). More knowledgeable and empowered women will auto-manage to bring populations down to rational levels.
    - A global recognition that countries are not 'falling behind' if their populations do not grow. Markets dependent on ever growing customer or production base are ill founded.
    - Management of the status quo level, and eventually shrinking global population, needs to be embraced.
    - Family planning (because that sounds more acceptable to religious extremists that 'birth control') needs to be embraced as part of the reality of life.

    The "good" (??) news is that mother nature will make its own adjustments, probably in a more nasty way, to reduce the world's body count.



    BLOG answers:
    ------------------
    • Is population growth a problem or an opportunity? BIG PROBLEM.
    • Are there any countries where population is not growing? Is that good, or bad for those countries? GOOD OR BAD - DEPENDS ON THE CAUSE. BUT GENERALLY, A GOOD THING FOR THE WORLD.
    • Do you favor or oppose immigration? Would you favor allowing more immigrants into your country? MANAGED IMMIGRATION IS GOOD.
    • If you are an immigrant, do you feel that you have blended into your new country? Do you still speak the language of the country of your origin? I IMMIGRATED 45 YEARS AGO. STILL SPEAK OTIGINAL LANGUAGE - BUT OUR KIDS DO NOT.
    • Much of the world is still empty space; have you considered moving? Would you consider emigrating? NOT LOOKING FOR EMPTY SPACE - LOOKING FOR QUALITY OF LIFE.
    • As the population ages, would you favor increasing the retirement age? ALLOW PEOPLE TO WORK FOREVER OF THEY ARE EMPLOYABLE OR SELF SUFFICIENT.
    • How should the increasing number of retired and elderly people be cared for? BY ENCOURAGING SELF SUFFICIENCY, PHYSICAL CARE FOR OUR OWN FAMILIES, SOCIETY CARE FOR OTHERS, AND DIGNIFIED LIFE TERMINATION FOR THOSE THAT DESIRE IT.
    • What solutions would you propose to control population growth? EDUCATION AND REDUCED INFLUENCE OF RELIGIONS.
    • How do we meet human needs and still preserve Earth's finite resources, biodiversity, and natural beauty? WE CAN'T UNLESS THE POPULATION COUNT IS REDUCED, HOPEFULLY NATURALLY.

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    Replies
    1. I agree and resonate with all your comments and responses.

      Reducing population will not happen is humanity does "business as usual". Products are designed for fast obsolescence or throw-away - which simply causes more problems. The constructs of the wealthy are all very short-sighted. We give "charity" to the poor, primarily to satisfy our conscience.

      Humanity needs to think in terms of longer-term changes.

      Delete
  2. Hi Jim,

    Great article! This is actually the one topic I really wanted to have as a program at our Rotary club during my year but we never identified a good speaker. You covered many of the important issues and expressed some of the same challenges and opportunities which I see. The Anonymous person who answered first gave pretty much the same responses I would have given for your blog questions.

    One thing that seems to be missing from your blog is what can realistically be done to control rapid population growth in countries which are growing the fastest. Family Planning is easier said than done in India and Africa, from what I can see.

    I will say that education is probably the single most important tool. My observation is that countries with a high quality of life including education are not the problem with respect to population growth.

    Thanks again for sharing your thoughts.

    Jeff

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    Replies
    1. Jeff: You're right - how to control population growth in countries that are growing the fastest? India's population growth is slowing. China has population under control. Africa, the planet's 2nd largest continent and the second most-populous continent (after Asia) includes (54) individual countries. How to control?

      Delete
  3. 1. Is population growth a problem or an opportunity?

    A: It must be considered both, with potential for going either way.


    2. Are there any countries where population is not growing? Is that good, or bad for those countries?

    A: Someone knows the answer, but my guess is Switzerland. Good or bad? Same as answer for #1.


    3. Do you favor or oppose immigration? Would you favor allowing more immigrants into your country?

    A: I personally oppose most immigration. We already have some 11 million Mexicans to absorb.


    4. If you are an immigrant, do you feel that you have blended into your new country? Do you still speak the language of the country of your origin?

    A: Not an immigrant.


    5. Much of the world is empty space; have you considered moving? Would you consider emigrating?

    A: Only to that last bastion of independence, the sea.


    6. As the population ages, would you favor increasing the retirement age?

    A: That seems to me the only practical solution.


    7. How should the increasing number of retired and elderly people be cared for?

    A: Birth control should have been widely enforced for the past century, but it was not. It’s way too late to work on the other end of the spectrum. The retired and elderly need to be cared for by their governments, and honored, as is done in Japan.


    8. What solutions would you propose to control population growth?

    A: Mandatory birth control, but not necessarily the way China did it.


    9. How do we meet human needs and still preserve Earth's finite resources, biodiversity, and natural beauty?

    A: In the past, technology has been used to solve such problems and opportunities. At some point, technology won’t be able to do more. Some may answer Nuclear War. Do I hear Dick Cheney cheering?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Jack, America is good at technology - but population growth cannot be controlled with tech solutions. It is a blind-spot for all advanced countries - we just shrug it away.

      Sadly, it seems that only major catastrophes - like nuclear war, or fast-spreading diseases - may solve the problem.

      Delete
  4. Jim, I am regular reader of your blogs and i thank you for bringing great knowledge in all walks of life to your readers. For all the questions that you have asked the problem we are having is Greed. Greed brings selfishness and thats when one human being puts his hands in other people's plates (resources) and there is a chain of problems that emerge. Countries fighting to get hold of resources of the poor. Poor becomes poorer and the rich becomes richer. On one hand we have super rich coutries and if you look at our bins we waste so much food and on the other hand in other countries, people are picking food from garbage Population is not a problem, problem is that wealth and resources fall under few people's hands. If there are more people then there are more brains to solve the world problems, how is this a problem.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, food and resource waste are acceptable with our current short-term-thinking constructs.

      Gaia suggests solutions, quoted at the end of the blog : "For example, if product engineers were made to consider the 10-billion global population during the design phase, they could create products that are more durable, longer lasting, and more easily dismantled for efficient recycling of their materials. Energy could be generated from nonpolluting sources. Instead of wasting 40 percent of our food, as we do now, we could farm, store, transport, and eat it more efficiently."

      Delete
  5. Population growth is not an opportunity. 50% of the US based jobs shall be replaced by robots and AI by 2020. The rest of the jobs are for highly educated people.
    So we don't need more people to support our growth, we need more robots.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Daan: You are right. The developed countries (Japan, Italy, Germany) will do very well with a smaller population. However, the BIG problem is how to look after the elderly. In Japan today, a major use of robots is to look after and serve old people.

      You might enjoy the movie: Robot & Frank - Set in the near future, an ex-jewel thief receives a gift from his son: a robot butler programmed to look after him.

      Delete
  6. While sitting on my balcony at Carlsbad beach on the Labor Day holiday, watching the beach-crowd grow, I started reflecting on the dynamics of population growth.

    Early in the morning, the beach was relatively empty. As people came they spread out naturally, some distance from each other. As more people arrived, the newcomers spread their blankets and positioned their chairs between those that were already there. We decided to stake our claim – we placed 5 chairs and a blanket in a good spot.

    Steadily, all the middle-spots were filled. As the day progressed more people arrived; the distance between each group halved (approximately). The beach started to get crowded. But still everyone was polite, courteous and friendly, and many of the children played together. Interestingly, while some newcomers got closer, no one disturbed our blanket and unoccupied chairs. Our “claim” remained undisputed. And everyone was still polite and friendly.

    Then the beach started getting really crowded. All along Carlsbad beach, as far as I could see, people were relatively evenly spaced, with their belongings (blankets and chairs and beach accessories) evidence that this was their spot. The beach was optimally crowded – clearly newcomers were viewing the possibilities and going elsewhere.

    All through this process, the protocols remained polite and friendly. Some people encroached on others’ spots, but always apologized. When relatively rude people got too close, some just left. But still, no one touched our blanket and chairs.

    Then some kids started to play a beach-ball game, which needs a bit more space – so they looked around and shifted our unoccupied blanket and chairs. No one objected.

    I then imagined (only made-up) how some tough-guys could come and take over the whole beach. People who objected could call the cops, I suppose. But no one would bother – they’d simply leave.

    Land Ownership:

    This got me reflecting on another “population dynamics” incident in Hawaii. A waiter commented on the relatively highbrow book I was reading which started our conversation. Clearly he was a scholarly man himself. He related how Hawaiians (and many other native peoples) never considered that anyone “owned” the land. It was there to be shared. So, when new people arrived – Japanese, Malaysians and others – the naïve Hawaiians shared the space. Pretty soon, the natives were required to pay high taxes on the land they occupied. This native Hawaiian was working in that Marriott hotel simply to earn money to pay taxes on his ancestral property.

    Our recent our cruise along the Snake and Columbia rivers in the Pacific Northwest, the exploration route taken by Lewis and Clark provided some insights about property and encroachment. Native Americans, the Nez Perce and others tribes, had no concept of ownership of the land, other than simply being there. When the Lewis and Clark expedition arrived, they were friendly and helpful. But, the explorers planted the American flag on the land and told them they would come under the protection of “the great white father” – George Washington, the President that had organized their exploration. Soon, the land “belonged” to America, though I think Indian tribes are exempt from paying taxes.

    I imagine that when earlier people invaded countries, similar sequences occurred. When the Huns and Mongols arrived, they simply “conquered” the land and the peoples by force. Similarly, I learned on our recent trip to Ireland, The Vikings and Normans and English overran the relatively peaceful Irish over the years. And this was how the British “ruled” India for close to a century. Happily, they exited peacefully, albeit confiscating “crown jewels” and other good stuff.

    I’ll appreciate some comments on these meditations related to “population dynamics”.

    ReplyDelete
  7. I shall try to answer some of your questions but not all of them.

    (1) Population growth has become a problem but if people were smarter it could have become an opportunity. We definitely have too many people in our country and in many other countries as well, but I shall tackle only my own country with this blog.

    (2) First of all we never should have closed down the Planned Parenthood business. By forcing those women who do not want children to have them, we are leaving all those unwanted kids without the benefit of having their early needs fulfilled. Psychologists know that when a child is separated from the one he has bonded to before age five, he will have a 95% chance of becoming a sociopath or a psychopath.* {HIGH RISK- Children Without a Conscious} by Drs. Magid & McKelvey} (published 1987 by BantamBooks.) I believe this is one reason why we are having so many school shootings and other disasters by kids at this time in America.

    (3 I have always opposed illegal immigration and think we should be more careful who we let in legally. That is all for now. Thanks for providing the opportunity,

    ReplyDelete
  8. 1. Is population growth a problem or an opportunity?
    I see population growth as a huge problem. Reason being the myriad different cultures, nations and countries, each with their own agenda that is seldom looking at the big picture but instead is very narrow mindedly focused. Especially self centred leaders whose only agenda is to keep themselves in power at any cost in all levels of society. Zimbabwe is a prime example of a failed country through poor leadership where 70% of the population is jobless.

    2. Are there any countries where population is not growing?
    Is that good, or bad for those countries?
    As far as I know all countries populations are growing, either from internal growth, immigration or both.
    I'm not sure if true but I've seen interesting statistics regarding Europe and the USA where it is stated that they will be taken over by Muslims within the next 40 years. This is mainly due to immigration and asylum seekers and low growth rate of the original inhabitants.

    3. Do you favor or oppose immigration?
    Would you favor allowing more immigrants into your country?
    More immigrants in South Africa will only aggravate the current unemployment rate. We have a huge crime problem due to +40% of the population being unemployed. Very few, if any, will sit back dying of hunger, instead they will rather choose crime to survive - which is to be expected. We see this daily in South Africa. 40 Years ago crime was the exception and unknown to most people. Today I literally do not know one single person who were not a victim of crime in one form or another.

    4. If you are an immigrant, do you feel that you have blended into your new country?
    Do you still speak the language of the country of your origin?
    N/A

    5. Much of the world is empty space; have you considered moving?
    Would you consider emigrating?
    Yes I would've emigrated but lack of resources and the age factor is prohibiting me from doing so at this stage.

    6. As the population ages, would you favor increasing the retirement age?
    Yes I do believe that the retirement age must be increased. But with a very high unemployment rate it is not an easy decision to make. You need to give the youth jobs or else they will, at one stage or another, make your life miserable. Most probably an easier decision in a first world country.

    7. How should the increasing number of retired and elderly people be cared for?
    A countries population should all be forced (the lucky ones with work) to contribute to a centralised retirement fund catering for all. But most importantly we will have to move back to a system where families look after each other instead of the elderly being dumped in an old age home. In South Africa under the white community, it was accepted that parents will go into an old age home. With the escalating of costs and unemployment that is fast becoming a pipe dream and the need for children to look after their retired parents, and vise versa, is becoming a necessity.
    It is in many instances in South Africa a necessity for whomever is working to divide his/her income with the rest of the family to ensure survival.

    8. What solutions would you propose to control population growth?
    Most people will be horrified by this answer but from my viewpoint a world war on the short-term with very strict birth control legislation thereafter. Seems to me that a world war is on its way whether we want it or not.
    In the long-term I do not know. Countries who do have a negative growth rate will end up being taken over by asylum seekers.

    9. How do we meet human needs and still preserve Earth's finite resources, biodiversity, and natural beauty?
    You can only preserve Earth's resources, biodiversity and natural beauty if most people are employed. Unemployed or hungry people do not care about biodiversity, natural beauty, legislative requirements, etc. They have a will to survive at any cost and that is exactly what they are doing.

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  9. Jim -
    I applaud you for presenting this growing issue with your blog. The media
    rarely discusses global population management as it is looked at as taboo.

    ReplyDelete
  10. 1. Is population growth a problem or an opportunity?
    All problems are opportunities for solution.

    2. Are there any countries where population is not growing? Is that good, or bad for those countries?
    Yes, in some countries, population is shrinking. This is neither good nor bad, it is just a fact.

    3. Do you favor or oppose immigration? Would you favor allowing more immigrants into your country?
    If one believes, as I do, that individual rights and freedom is essential for human progress, and the purpose of government is to protect these rights, than governments have no right to stop anyone from traveling from one country to another.

    4. If you are an immigrant, do you feel that you have blended into your new country? Do you still speak the language of the country of your origin?
    Not applicable.

    5. Much of the world is still empty space; have you considered moving? Would you consider emigrating?
    No to both questions.

    6. As the population ages, would you favor increasing the retirement age?
    One should retire when one wants to, and the government should keep the commitments they have made for social security but gradually eliminate this program - and all government entitlements.

    7. How should the increasing number of retired and elderly people be cared for?
    Through private organizations.

    8. What solutions would you propose to control population growth?
    No solutions other than get government out of the economy, thus eliminating socialism which will rise the standard of living and population growth will solve itself.

    9. How do we meet human needs and still preserve Earth's finite resources, biodiversity, and natural beauty?
    Again, through private organizations.

    ReplyDelete